Congressional Budget Office 2019 Economic Outlook Report: Budget Deficit Over $1 Trillion Per Year, Well Above Average; Debt Projected To Be 93% Of GDP (Highest Since WWII); Government Spending Increasing; Economic Growth Projected To Slow To 1.7% Through 2023
The Congressional Budget Office, a non-partisan group employed by Congress to provide budget and economy forecasts and analysis. Their 2019 Economic Outlook Report provides a detailed analysis on government spending and economic growth in the United States. Key points in this report include:
- “The federal budget deficit is about $900 billion in 2019 and exceeds $1 trillion each year beginning in 2022. Over the coming decade, deficits…fluctuate between 4.1 percent and 4.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), well above the average over the past 50 years.”
- “Because of persistently large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to grow steadily, reaching 93 percent of GDP in 2029 (its highest level since just after World War II) and about 150 percent of GDP in 2049—far higher than it has ever been.”
- “Federal outlays…are projected to climb from 20.8 percent of GDP in 2019 to 23.0 percent in 2029. The aging of the population and the rising cost of health care contribute significantly to the growth in spending for major benefit programs, such as Social Security and Medicare.”
- After 2019, annual economic growth is projected to slow to between 1.7 and 1.8 percent until 2029, below the potential growth levels projected by the CBO.